From Proxy War to Proxy Peace
The U.S. and Russia are finally talking
My articles and posts on X frequently discuss peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Each time, I conclude that the likelihood of such an event occurring is low, let alone achieving a successful outcome. However, the past few days brought some interesting news on the subject, revealing the general direction of the Trump administration in this regard. In a nutshell, there will be peace talks, but they will be unlikely to involve Ukraine directly.
The concept isn't new; political analysts have been suggesting bilateral talks between Russia and the US for some time now. The logic behind this approach is solid once you accept that the conflict is between Washington and Moscow, and Ukraine just happened to get caught in between. Even if the Kiev regime was willing to bend over backward to accommodate the Kremlin, the latter's security concerns extend well beyond Ukraine.
Russia's demands are outlined in the December 2021 open letter, which contains two draft treaties with NATO and the US. A separate confidential proposal was extended to the US alone and rejected by the Biden administration. At the time, neither Western nor Russian diplomats and political analysts expected the West to accept Russia's "ultimatum," as the open letter was commonly branded in the media. Russia's purpose in launching its Special Military Operation in Ukraine was to change Washington's mind. It would now appear that the mind has been changed.
After untold human and financial losses, we find ourselves back where we started—December 2021. Bruised and exhausted, everyone is now more agreeable. What was unacceptable to the West three years ago now appears to be an option. Of course, this positive shift in diplomatic stance offers little consolation to Ukraine.
Zelensky certainly realizes that Ukraine is being excluded from the process and tries to prevent this from happening. 1 Unfortunately for him, the Russians and the Americans hold all the aces. More money and weapons aside, Zelensky's kryptonite is the topic of elections. Ever since his term in office ended at the end of May 2024, Zelensky's legal status has been a subject of some debate. Ukraine's nominal president claims the time isn't right to hold elections because of the war. Yet, the war in Ukraine has been raging since 2014, and the country has managed to conduct two presidential elections and numerous local elections.
General Kellogg, Trump's point man on Ukraine, was direct when he addressed the subject:
Most democratic nations have elections in their time of war. I think it is important they do so. I think it is good for democracy. That's the beauty of a solid democracy: you have more than one person potentially running. 2
While Kellogg mentioned a ceasefire, he did not make it a prerequisite for holding elections. This suggests that the Americans realize a ceasefire could allow Zelensky to stall indefinitely, possibly even outlasting Trump's term in office. The only way the US can pressure Ukraine into a settlement is by letting the war continue. The short-termism of America's political process makes this a risky strategy, but there are no alternatives that do not involve sending US troops to Ukraine.
Putin, for his part, also expressed reservations about negotiating with Zelensky and Ukraine in general. In late 2022, while still serving as the legitimate president of Ukraine, Zelensky issued an executive order prohibiting any negotiations with Russia. Putin questions Zelensky's legal ability to rescind this order now that his term in office has officially ended. Zelensky's uncertain situation hinders the very viability of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, as any potential agreement can later face a legal challenge.
Can Zelensky run for re-election? Technically, yes, but his chances of winning are slim. If he runs and loses, he will forfeit all legal protections offered by his office. Over the past five years, he has made quite a few enemies. Zelensky's two most likely opponents, former president Petro Poroshenko and ex-Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zaluzhny, are not exactly fans of his. Once Zelensky is out of office, he becomes a very soft target, and remaining in Ukraine is simply not an option. But where can he go?
The Americans are already digging—they want to know where all the money went. Only a tiny handful of countries can shelter Zelensky from the US, but none of them are Ukraine's allies. As I've written repeatedly, Ukraine's near future depends entirely on whether or not someone offers Zelensky a safe harbor. For Ukraine to move forward, its fearless leader needs a clear exit strategy - not for the nation but for himself. And, once he's out of the picture, there may be a chance of some glimmer of hope for the people.
However, such a resolution remains elusive. Washington used Ukraine as a proxy in the war. For all practical considerations, the US lost this war and now has little choice but to act as a proxy for peace. Direct talks between Russia and Ukraine nearly yielded an agreement in early 2022 before the UK and the US disrupted negotiations. That opportunity has passed, and a tête-à -tête meeting between Putin and Zelensky—even if possible—would result in nothing more than rhetoric and posturing.
Zelensky is worried that Moscow and Washington will hammer out a deal and impose it on Ukraine. He is right to be concerned, but there isn't much he can do about it. Trump and Putin will strike a deal, and Zelensky's acceptance of it will lay the groundwork for his exit from the stage. Trump has all but confirmed that his administration is in direct talks with the Kremlin, effectively bypassing the Kiev regime:
We will be speaking, and I think will perhaps do something that’ll be significant. We want to end that war. That war would have not started if I was president. 3
It goes without saying that Trump wouldn't want any Ukraine peace deal or provisional ceasefire to be seen as a bilateral agreement between Russia and the US. While there may be some theatrics to make Trump seem tough on Putin, the issue is more complex than appearances alone, as Zelensky is not the sole power in Ukraine. Those who helped this soap opera actor get elected and propped him up for the past five years depend on remaining in control, making a truly free and democratic election in Ukraine a virtual impossibility.
If the shadowy powers in Ukraine, including its numerous neofascist organizations and oligarchs, do not accept the peace deal, another coup in Kiev is possible. 4 Any agreement must come with funding. Ukraine's corruption is a problem without a solution. If these individuals cannot siphon from military aid, they will need a new source; otherwise, chaos will ensue, which neither Washington nor Moscow can afford. The plans for the so-called "reconstruction" of Ukraine promise to be a particularly lucrative source of plunder, funded by US and EU taxpayers.
Let me oversimplify the situation. A peace deal is definitely possible if there's enough money on the table.
Trump has his hands full with high-priority issues like illegal immigration and the tariff wars. While Ukraine may seem to be high on his agenda, its fait is largely inconsequential to the vast majority of Americans. In other words, Ukraine is a political priority - not a social or economic one. Those of us who followed the war in Ukraine closely may imagine the matter as being high on Trump's to-do list, but consider this: as a part of the expense reduction initiative, the Trump administration cut virtually all foreign aid, with the only two exceptions being Israel and Egypt. And I don't even know why Egypt, other than it is preparing for war with Israel.
A few months ago, Ukrainian officials seemed more optimistic about the possibility of a ceasefire. Although Zelensky repeatedly stated that a frozen conflict was not in Ukraine's best interests, it appeared to be the case at that time. Today, there is significant suspicion and concern regarding the prospects for a ceasefire. 5 What has changed in the past several months to shift this attitude? Factors include Trump’s election, a reduction in aid, an increase in Russian offensives, the growing pressure from Washington to hold elections, and the epidemic of desertion among Ukrainian troops. Taking a break now would likely worsen the situation, as Ukraine would struggle with rearmament and recovery while Russia would continue to strengthen its position.
Blann, Susie, et al. "Takeaways from the AP interview with Ukraine’s Zelenskyy." AP News, 1 Feb. 2025, apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-trump-talks-ceasefire-08d77c7f2ca8ac07e74baf0d6ceff33a.
Banco, Erin and Jonathan Landay. "Exclusive: U.S. wants Ukraine to hold elections following a ceasefire, says Trump envoy." Reuters, 1 Feb. 2025, www.reuters.com/world/us-wants-ukraine-hold-elections-following-ceasefire-says-trump-envoy-2025-02-01.
Madhani, Aamer and Will Weissert. "Trump says he and Putin could do something 'significant' toward ending Russia's war in Ukraine." AP News, 31 Jan. 2025, apnews.com/article/trump-putin-russia-ukraine-6c5a098488e64cd7643a89f4aaacd249.
Venik. "Ukraine's Neo-Fascist Organizations." Let Me Tell You..., 17 Feb. 2023, venik.substack.com/p/114128html.
Walsh, Nick Paton, et al. "‘There is no future’: Even a potential ceasefire sparks little hope in eastern Ukraine." CNN, 2 Feb. 2025, edition.cnn.com/2025/02/02/europe/ukraine-russia-frontline-ceasefire-deal-intl/index.html.
Elections? Simple question -- Who gets to vote in a "Ukrainian" election? Will people in the Donbas & Crimea (which Zelensky claims as part of the Ukraine) get to vote? What about all the Ukrainians who voted with their feet and left for Europe & Russia? What about Ukrainian soldiers on the front line? It would be administratively much more complex to have an election in the Ukraine today than, say, in the US during WWII. That means the result of any election would be contestable.
Related issue -- once Russian forces reach the boundaries of the four oblasts which voted to join the Russian Federation, the SMO is over. In Russian legal terms, any advance beyond those boundaries would become a War -- and President Putin would probably prefer not to have to declare War. The West probably has a narrow window of opportunity to strike a deal before those boundaries are reached and Russia has to cross the Rubicon.
putin/russia is a stickler for law and the legality of things..at present any negotiation with ukraine is impossible because of the law you make note of in your article.. until that changes, any agreement with the usa, needs to change this law, in order for ukraine to sign onto it as well... thanks for your articles...