Winds of Withdrawal
Ukraine’s Strategic Retreat into the Maw of Mass Casualties
I find myself wondering about the Russian army's next major move after taking Avdeyevka. Earlier today, advanced Russian assault units hoisted a Russian flag at the exact spot in Avdeyevka where Zelensky had posed with a Ukrainian banner not even a month ago. Ukraine's most combat-ready unit, the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade (formed around the remnants of the “Azov” Battalion), was dispatched to Avdeyevka to bolster the town's defenses. This move was part of a troop rotation scheduled by Ukraine’s now former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny to relieve the town’s battered garrison.
The surprise came when his replacement, General Syrskyi, left the plan unchanged despite the vastly different situation on the ground. Upon arriving at the scene of carnage, “Azov” officers publicly discussed the ferocity of the fighting and the nearly complete absence of any prepared defensive positions. Simultaneously, the command of Ukraine's “Tavriya” southern group of forces announced a “partial withdrawal” from Avdeyevka, supposedly to “more favorable positions.” It quickly became evident to the “Azov” fighters that their role had morphed from defense to merely covering the army's withdrawal. There will be no glory for Ukraine there.
The Russian army's pincer move around the town runs far too deep for even Ukraine's best fighting unit to ensure a smooth withdrawal of the many thousands of AFU troops. Hiding in the basements of steel-reinforced concrete buildings was a much safer proposition than traveling on foot under relentless Russian artillery and aviation bombardment. However, with all major resupply lines cut, remaining in the city is no longer an option. This withdrawal should’ve started much earlier, as now it will come with massive casualties. Despite the heavy fighting and the considerable resources dedicated by the Russian army to the Avdeyevka theater of operations, the town remains a tactical priority. Moscow’s strategic interests lie elsewhere.
There have been recent reports citing “British intelligence” sources, among others, suggesting that the Russian army has gathered a sizable force for a potential repeat attack in the Kharkov region. This force is rumored to include as many as forty thousand troops, some five hundred tanks, more than six hundred other armored combat vehicles, hundreds of artillery pieces, and so on. Yet, the usual British intelligence sources, such as Twitter, TikTok, and Telegram, show little evidence of a Russian military buildup around Kharkov. This may be because the British spies have finally found better sources of intelligence, or, perhaps, the Russians are deploying a smokescreen to conceal their true intentions as usual.
I’ve always noted that Russian missile and drone strikes in the Odessa and Nikolayev regions have been relatively light and mostly confined to certain military infrastructure targets. This is no longer the case, it would seem. Frequency, intensity, and target selection are all on the rise. Conventional wisdom suggests one doesn’t expend valuable ammunition just to put on a show. Increased Russian military activity in Odessa and Nikolayev is unlikely to be a goal in itself. Pushing the AFU away from Donetsk and Belgorod are important objectives. Moving Ukraine farther away from Crimea and the Black Sea, in general, is a strategic goal. But is this an achievable objective, or a pipe dream, like Zelensky's promises to retake Crimea?
As the Japanese say, the thinner the thread, the sooner it snaps. The Ukrainian army has put up a valiant fight, likely unnecessarily so. But resources, including human resources, are never limitless. This deadly proxy war is heading toward its inevitable conclusion, for the proxy in particular. Not unlike a descending avalanche or a bursting dam, war losses compound and accelerate. What today seems like slow and grinding Russian progress on the ground will morph into a chain reaction, as Ukraine is running out of ammunition, weapons, money, people, and moral fortitude. And then, there is Odessa, largely spared the horrors of this war, largely Russian-speaking, and largely as suspicious of Kiev's motives as it is of Moscow's. Perhaps somewhere along these lines lies Putin's reasoning.