Revisiting AFU's Counteroffensive Plans Amid Bakhmut Setback
Donetsk as the Perfect Distraction: Examining the Tactical Implications
The following is a quick update on the AFU counteroffensive plans as they appear to adapt to the loss of Bakhmut. Russian sources report a significant surge in AFU troops and equipment in Avdeyevka and the nearby village of Krasnohorovka. The reinforcements arrive primarily via the railroad station in Kurakhove.
In the past few days, the Russian army has stepped up its attacks against AFU positions in Mariinka and Avdeyevka, so this surge of Ukrainian personnel and hardware may simply be a response to increased Russian activity. However, Ukraine has been actively launching the US-supplied ADM-160B MALD decoys toward Donetsk, intending to deplete Russian air defenses. The AFU has also launched British-supplied "Storm Shadow" cruise missiles to hit Russian ammunition depots and fuel storage facilities near Donetsk and its suburbs. The “Storm Shadows” are also being used to hit Russian forward airfields in an attempt to diminish Russia’s air power advantage. These actions indicate a substantial offensive operation may take place within days.
Logically, Donetsk is not a good target for the AFU. It is a large and very well-defended city. Judging by AFU's experience in Bakhmut, the entire Ukrainian army can disappear in Donetsk. On the other hand, an attack on Donetsk is the perfect distraction. The Russians can't ignore it and must respond with sufficient force, potentially redeploying additional resources from elsewhere.
Bakhmut is still on the list of potential diversionary attacks. Significant AFU forces are present west of the city. However, the level of combat fatigue is high, and so far, every AFU attempt to attack Wagner Group's flanks has been costly and nonproductive. Having said this, I would never drop Bakhmut from the list of potential AFU targets simply because this is how Zelensky's brain works.
Depending on how the situation develops in Donetsk and Bakhmut, the next stage of the Ukrainian counteroffensive will likely include Tokmak and Volnovakha. These two towns will need to be attacked concurrently, as Russia has substantial defenses in the area, and splitting their attention will be critical.
While politically, Mariupol is a more attractive target, cutting Russia's "land bridge" to Crimea can be accomplished by capturing either town. Melitopol, however, is a smaller target and will be easier to hold. Thus, the attack on Mariupol may play a dual role: a diversion that the Russians can't ignore and a way to mess with the Russian supply lines running further west to Melitopol.