Playing Possum
How Kiev May Get Its Wish and Freeze the War
Given Ukraine’s current predicament with the war and the missing economy, most have assumed Zelensky is highly unlikely to seek a second term, let alone win reelection. But let’s imagine he does both. He’s a stubborn and determined little critter, as I’m sure you know.
As I previously wrote, most of his theoretical opposition is weak. The only exception - Zaluzhny - has never publically expressed any interest in a political career. Many assume he might run for Ukraine’s top job, but this is not a fact. Really, who would want to be Ukraine’s president at a time like this? Only someone who can’t afford not to be one.
But let’s suppose Zaluzhny runs for president. The guy has many skeletons in his closet, and Zelensky knows all about those. The title of the Commander-in-Chief was created specifically for Zaluzhny. He had been in charge of the country’s defenses well before the war, and all of the carnage happened on the general’s watch. Politically speaking, Zaluzhny’s reputation is far from being an impregnable fortress. The rest of Zelensky’s potential challengers are Tweedledum and Tweedledee.
Zelensky winning the reelection would throw Ukraine’s fan club into disarray. Even more so. Look at Sweden, Finland, and Poland: they are actively getting ready for the “big one.” Everyone understands that Ukraine is done, and the only question on everyone’s mind is, “Who’s next?”
The West is hoping for some sort of conflict freeze in Ukraine that would allow the AFU and NATO to catch their breath. This is an even less likely scenario than Zelensky winning reelection. But with Zelensky in power until 2029? Forget it!
One may wonder why would any rational Ukrainian voter choose to re-elect Zelensky, as doing so would inevitably lead to the end of the Ukrainian state. Contrary to popular belief among Ukraine’s detractors, the vast majority of Ukrainians are perfectly rational, reasonable, and well-educated. But there’s a small matter of the overwhelming state propaganda that left the country’s population thoroughly brainwashed and nearly incapable of critical thinking.
Many Ukrainians honestly believe that they are winning. They still think Russia will run out of missiles and troops by next Sunday. They believe the “British intelligence” reports that the Russians are arming themselves with shovels. They believe the “U.S. intelligence” reports that ninety-some percent of the Russian army has been destroyed. If that’s your present mindset, re-electing Zelensky seems entirely rational, wouldn’t you say?
Zelensky said and did way too much to climb down. He painted himself into a corner. He has nowhere to run. His only option is continued warfare, costs be damned. And that’s exactly what will happen if he gets re-elected. He may understand what needs to be done. It’s just that he simply can’t do it. Right now, the only thing that may prevent him from running for re-election is ironclad asylum abroad. He is a massive hot potato that nobody wants to handle. And so the West (read, the US) needs to find a bitch that would take him in. All eyes are on Germany’s Scholz, of course. Maybe Sweden. It may even be Finland, although such physical proximity to the Russian border would make Zelensky very uncomfortable, I’d imagine.
Whatever the case, the West needs to act now to keep Zelensky from being re-elected. His term expires in June, and the Constitution mandates the presidential election be held by the end of March. There isn’t much time left for the usual political demagoguery.
From Putin’s perspective, here’s the worst-case scenario: Zelensky doesn’t run for re-election. Zaluzhny or whoever becomes the next Ukrainian president. He blames everything on Zelensky and advocates for peace talks. He is willing to give up Crimea and the four other regions annexed by Russia in 2022, not along the current battle lines but along the administrative borders recognized by Russia. Whether such terms would be acceptable to Moscow (unlikely), Putin will have no choice but to engage in peace talks.
What does Ukraine stand to lose in such a scenario? Territories it doesn’t control anyway and that are inhabited by generally pro-Russian population. This would be a nightmare scenario for the Kremlin because it aims so much higher. Putin’s stated and frequently reiterated goals for his Special Military Operation are threefold:
1. Security for Donbas.
2. Demilitarization of Ukraine.
3. De-Nazification of Ukraine.
The primary objective is fairly straightforward and clearly defined. The other two are nebulous at best and intentionally so. There’s a lot of wiggle room, and I’m sure that was the plan all along. Russia has neither the desire nor the resources to capture and annex all of Ukraine. Moscow has its hands full, reintegrating the many millions of residents of the four newly annexed regions.
You may say that there are bigger plans: Novorossiya and a land bridge to Transnistria. True, but Putin is also a pragmatist. As the Russian saying goes, a tit in hand is better than a lark in the sky, and Putin is a big fan of Russian proverbs. On the other hand, much has transpired since this take on Russia’s national security might’ve been acceptable to the Kremlin. The situation has evolved, as they say.
Nevertheless, Ukraine’s acquiescence to the prospect of dropping its claims to the lost territories would all but oblige Russia to sit down at the negotiating table. And more than just sit down: a situation where Ukraine recognizes all of Russia’s annexations would force the Kremlin to cease hostilities, effectively giving Ukraine that frozen conflict it wants so much (despite the many public statements to the contrary).
Let me play the devil’s advocate for a moment. Setting its more lofty dreams aside, Russia will have to get engaged. Perhaps to a much lesser degree than their Ukrainian peers, the Russian public is also tired of this war. True, Russia can keep the war going for much longer than Ukraine and may get more out of it. Or not. Regardless, Kiev playing possum would be a tough act for the Kremlin to disregard. You have to understand that Russia is fighting not so much Zelensky but the West in general. However struggling and disorganized, NATO is still a vast military alliance of some of the world’s wealthiest nations.